Take a €14 billion Apple windfall. Mix in the best-ever corporation tax returns, and what do you get? Election speculation. Lots of it. With Government coffers so awash with cash, the temptation may be too great for the Taoiseach. We may be days, or possibly weeks away from starters’ orders. Why wait until the spring, when another overpriced bicycle shed could easily emerge to derail the momentum of a giveaway budget?
With the public finances in such robust health, there’s good news for everyone. The Government will be putting money into people’s pockets, not taking it out, this time around. Over in London, Sir Keir Starmer can look on in envy while an Irish Taoiseach pours out the cash. No slashing of anyone’s winter fuel allowance in this jurisdiction.
Economy
A national election vote is primarily about returning someone to govern the economy. And since the governing parties are steering the ship in the good times, they are very confident right now.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have two things going for them. First, though much of their support base was disappointed with them in recent years, as they shifted radically on social issues, soft ‘c’ conservative voters remained, and still are, more afraid of Sinn Fein. ‘Cling to nurse, for fear of getting something worse,’ might sum up this attitude and Micheál Martin and Simon Harris know how to play on people’s fears in that quarter.
The Government parties are also benefitting from the recent estrangement between Sinn Féin and some of its existing supporters. The party has fallen from an opinion poll high of 38% not long ago to less than 20% recently.
Though not many will say it, migration is probably the single biggest cause of Sinn Féin’s woes. For the most part, SF is run by left-wingers ranging from the fairly pragmatic to the highly ideological. Left-wingers tend to be more internationalist than nationalist in their loyalties.
The challenge is to avoid seeing the forthcoming election battle either as a spectator sport just to be enjoyed by political ‘anoraks’”
But while some among the SF support-base are, in a good way, deeply patriotic, certain others are in a very bad way, narrowly nationalistic. However you read it, many Sinn Féiners are hostile to the demographic trends of recent years, and Mary Lou and co. haven’t found a way to keep that wing on board. It has, for now, migrated. Its votes will help a lot of independents in the coming election, but this would leave FF/FG as the only show in town to form the core of the next administration.
For people of faith, the challenge is to avoid seeing the forthcoming election battle either as a spectator sport just to be enjoyed by political ‘anoraks’, or as a fait accompli, an affair with a pre-determined outcome which we can’t change. We need to think early about how we are going to use our votes. And about who else we can bring to use their votes for good.
If there is a smaller party like Aontú with a candidate running in your area, that’s not a bad place to start, because Aontú has decent positions on social justice issues like child protection, parental rights in education, abortion and euthanasia.
Preferences
Another reason to lend Team Tóibín a No 1 is that it needs at least 2% of first preferences nationally, a target it narrowly missed last time, to be eligible for State funding for political parties. When you think of some of the ways the Government is spending taxpayers’ money at the moment, that might motivate.
If a voter wants to support a traditional party, then it’s worth seeking out the party candidate who has spoken up against the party whip on a conscience issue. Politicians who have told us lies in the past, it goes without saying, don’t deserve our support. How will they ever learn, if we reward them?
We need the removal of contentious SPHE programmes from schools, because parents are the primary educators and they are being insulted, not consulted”
What do we want to ask our politicians in the coming months? A clear ban on the availability of pornography to children across digital media is an important ask. I have already tabled a Bill in this area, as has Aontú, and I think there is real potential to move the political establishment on this one. The Government’s partial reversal on ‘hate speech’ legislation shows the impact people can have.
We need the removal of contentious SPHE programmes from schools, because parents are the primary educators and they are being insulted, not consulted. Financial provision of pro-life counselling is important and politicians seeking your vote should support the availability and promotion of abortion reversal treatment for women who change their mind after taking initial steps towards abortion.
Mandatory pain-relief to protect the unborn child from suffering in any late-term abortions, should be a basic ask in any civilised society. There should also be a commitment, especially with last March’s referendum result in mind, that stay-home parents will do at least as well as working parents in any reallocation of State supports for childcare.
Euthanasia
The campaign for euthanasia is a big threat to our society. The sad reality is that it will be introduced by stealth by the major parties unless voters speak up. ‘Assisted Dying’ is one of those issues that can be misrepresented as a matter of personal choice in a difficult situation.
In fact, there are huge ramifications for how the old, the vulnerable and the disabled are made to see themselves, and for what happens to them, once the cheaper, less complicated and more bureaucratically efficient option of killing people is on the table. It is especially important that caring people who work in the medical arena or with the elderly speak up about this.
Finally, if bishops, and religious leaders of all persuasions will forgive this unasked-for advice, please get your pre-election messages out early, not late, in the election campaign. Better again, contact your flock before the election is even called. People need your material and talking points for when they meet their politicians on the doorsteps. Those candidates are already calling. As an election looms, what do we ask the politicians?