Cathal Barry
Stark new figures provide opportunity to plan for the future, Fr Gareth Byrne tells Cathal Barry
The number of priests in the Dublin archdiocese is set to plummet by as much as 70% by 2030, new research has found.
Other key findings include a predicted 33% decline in Mass attendance by 2030 and a higher age profile of priests.
The figures are stark when compared to the prediction, based on past trends, that very little change is expected in the demand for Baptisms, Communions, Confirmations and funerals.
The findings are published in a report compiled by consultancy firm Towers Watson on behalf of the Diocesan Priests Council which sets out the future trends for ministry and personnel numbers over the period 2014-2030.
Admitting the figures were “stark”, the chairman of the diocese’s Council of Priests, Fr Gareth Byrne, insisted they “provide an opportunity to look at the situation in its reality and plan into the future to be the best Church that we can be in Dublin”.
Fr Byrne told The Irish Catholic that the findings “weren’t really surprising” but provide a good basis to work from with regard to planning for the future of the Church in Dublin.
Roles
“What we would hope to do by making these figures available to people is to stir up a good conversation, to seek to revitalise local Church communities and to reawaken parishioners to the Gospel message and to the gift and call of their Baptism to take appropriate roles as lay people in building up their local parish,” he said.
Describing as a “concern” the figures specifically regarding the decline in the number of priests and Mass attendance, Fr Byrne said he “hoped” that the Church could “engage with people to see if we can support parishes and help people to have a better sense of what Church might mean to them in the future”.
He said it was “fascinating” that the demand for the sacraments would remain stable despite the fall off in the numbers of people attending Mass.
“It is an interesting point that even though people are not always participating every weekend that they are still very interested in initiating their children into the rites of the Church, through Baptism, Confirmation and receiving Holy Communion. It is very fascinating that that is really important to people still,” he said, adding that the “challenge now is for the local faith community to try to build on that, to try to engage with people to see how we can make the Church a place where they feel welcome”.
At best, the study predicts a 61% reduction in the numbers of clergy, from 369 priests working at full capacity to 144 by 2030, provided religious orders maintain their current level of commitment in parishes.
However, should religious orders relinquish parish responsibilities due to the aging profile of their own members, the drop would be 70%, leaving just 111 priests working at full capacity in the diocese. The study also predicts that the average age of religious order priests will increase from 62 in 2014 to 65 in 2030, with 77% of these priests being of the age of 60 in 2030.
Due to declining numbers and the increasing age profile of religious priests, the research notes that this may mean that they could be forced to reduce their involvement within the parishes as they tend to their other duties within their orders.
If this occurs, the study states, this will have a knock-on impact on either the workload of the diocesan priests or the amount of time devoted to parishes.
On the future of priests from religious orders within the diocese, Fr Byrne said the orders and congregations have been “very important for us in the dioceses and it’s been a great partnership for us over the years”.
“Obviously, within what’s possible for them, the diocese and the priest’s council will be hoping to encourage their continued presence in the diocese,” he said.
Impact
In terms of the impact, there is currently one priest working to full capacity for every 430 people attending Mass each weekend. Given the decline in Mass attendance projected over the period to 2030, the researchers estimate that the diocese would require 246 priests to provide the same level of service to parishioners.
Given that the population of priests is projected to be 144 in 2030, the study notes that this represents a shortfall of 102 priests. This shortfall would increase to 135 priests if religious order priests relinquished parish responsibilities.
Potential options provided to the priest’s council for dealing with the priest shortfall include recruiting new priests from overseas or from other parts of the country, allocating more work to lay people allowing priests to concentrate on liturgical tasks and making it increasingly attractive for priests who are over the age of 75 to remain in ministry in some capacity.
There were 836 Masses on the weekend that the census took place in 2014. Assuming this was a typical weekend and given the reduction in priests predicted for 2030, the survey states that just 331 Mass would have to be celebrated each weekend in order to ensure there would be no increase in the workload of priests.
The survey suggests that the diocese should initially reduce the number of weekly Masses within each parish while maintaining each parish. It also suggests amalgamating parishes, which it claims would allow the diocese to retain a greater number of Masses in the parishes which have a better Mass attendance while merging other parishes with these.
Ultimately, the optimal solution is probably a combination of reduced Masses and combined parishes, the research paper suggests.
Fr Byrne told this newspaper that the priest’s council is “very keen at looking for ways to train, not just priests, but deacons and parish pastoral workers, parish pastoral councils, to work together in building up our faith community”.
“Parish pastoral workers and deacons are a central part of any planning,” he said.
Fr Byrne also insisted that he did not see the figures as a fait accompli. “We need to be looking at the figures, looking at the reality, and trying to build up the community into the future and look for new ways of celebrating being Church,” he said.