Fall Out: A Year of Political Mayhem
by Tim Shipman (William Collins, £25)
Peter Hegarty
This year will test Theresa May. She must somehow get a good deal for Britain, the weaker negotiating partner, in talks with an increasingly assertive EU.
In an impeccably-sourced account of her premiership Tim Shipman, the political editor of the Sunday Times, suggests that her troubles will continue. She struggles against many limitations.
He notes for instance that power has exposed her inability to win over people.
Supporters and critics alike agree that she is a woman of conviction and integrity, a Tory version of Jeremy Corbyn. However, she lacks his warmth, his common touch. He publicly comforted people after the blaze at Grenfell Tower, but she chose not to, instead spending her time at the scene of the disaster with emergency services personnel.
A lack of planning and a knowledge deficit have weakened May’s negotiating position. Shipman points out that no-one in Britain conducted any meaningful research into the implications of a vote to leave the EU. It was not generally understood that the EU would strongly assert its interests in the coming talks, or that Brexit had the potential to seriously disrupt trade with Ireland.
Price
At home May has paid the price for underestimating Corbyn, who won over millions of voters at the last election, largely by campaigning for a form of Brexit that would protect their living standards.
He persuaded former Labour voters who had dallied with UKIP to return home. His party had bags of money, and unlike its Tory opponents, armies of eager young volunteers.
Were it not for the political nous of Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who has the measure of Nicola Sturgeon, and wrested 12 seats from the SNP, Theresa May might well be sitting on the opposition benches today.
May’s position has improved slightly as a result of progress in talks with the EU and the recent cabinet reshuffle, but she is no position to dictate to anyone at home or abroad.
Shipman makes the intriguing prediction that her weakness may prove to be her strength: would anyone else want to be PM when the EU, as it surely will, forces Britain to make more humiliating concessions? Calamity May seems safe for now.