John L. Allen Jr.
Is the Pope’s jubilee year going to be a flop?
Philosophy’s classic head-scratcher asks if a tree falls in the forest but no one’s there to hear it, does it make a sound? In 2016, Pope Francis may face his own personal version of that conundrum: If a Pope calls a jubilee year but no one shows up, did it actually happen?
That’s a tongue-in-cheek way of putting things, because to suggest “no one” may turn out for the Holy Year of Mercy that Francis has set to run from December 8, 2015, to November 20, 2016, is wildly overstated. Plenty of pilgrims have already taken part in its early moments, including the opening of a Holy Door at St Peter’s Basilica on December 8 and on New Year’s Day at St Mary Major, and the city of Rome is expecting throngs of additional visitors during the year.
On the other hand, Vatican statistics released at the end of the year show that attendance at papal events in December was down significantly with respect to 2014, having dropped 30% from the same month in the previous year. Crowd totals fell from 461,000 in December 2014 to 324,000 in December 2015, despite the fact that there were actually a few more events last month due to the beginning of the Holy Year.
The decline was palpable during the holiday period, as crowds for the Pope’s Urbi et Orbi address on Christmas Day and his noontime Angelus on New Year’s Day were enthusiastic but notably smaller than usual.
Based on the diminished turnout, one Italian newspaper carried the headline: “A ‘Jubilee Effect’ Just Isn’t There.” Some Italian commentators began rolling out the word ‘flop’ to describe the jubilee’s early phase.
Concern
Most observers believe a primary reason for the small crowds is widespread concern over security in the wake of the November terrorist attacks in Paris, which has produced alarm over large public gatherings all over Europe. It’s had a chilling effect on tourism generally, with officials in the Italian province that includes Rome also reporting below-average hotel occupancy rates during the holiday period.
Every day seems to bring a new security scare. On New Year’s Day, for instance, there was a report of a suspicious package discovered on Rome’s subway system which discouraged many locals from using public transportation.
Since terrorism does not seem on the brink of disappearing, it could cast a shadow over the entire year. If a 30% drop for Francis’ events were to continue throughout 2016, it would mean that almost two million fewer people will see him during his all-important jubilee year than in the previous two.
There may, however, be two other forces behind the drop-off, both of which may not necessarily be alarming for the kind of jubilee Pope Francis hopes to lead.
For one thing, Francis created unusually high expectations for crowd size in the early stages of his papacy. Official Vatican figures estimate that Francis drew almost six million people to public events in Rome during 2014, after setting a record total of 6.6 million in 2013. Both represented astonishing spikes in comparison to the turnout for Pope Benedict XVI, who in 2011 drew 2.5 million.
Since Francis’ election, virtually every Wednesday General Audience and Sunday Angelus address in Rome took on the feel of a major canonisation Mass, with massive crowds forcing police to block off portions of the broad Via della Conciliazione leading to St Peter’s Square.
Levelling-off
To some extent, it could be that Francis’ totals were always destined to come back to Earth, and December 2015 may go down as the moment when that levelling-off began to happen. For a pontiff who’s groused about being dubbed a ‘superman’, that may not seem an entirely bad thing.
In addition, Francis has said he doesn’t want the Year of Mercy to be celebrated exclusively in Rome, but also in local parishes and dioceses all around the world.
For the first time in the history of the Church’s jubilee tradition, which stretches all the way back to Pope Boniface VIII in 1300, individual dioceses have been asked to open their own Holy Door, to be called a ‘Door of Mercy,’ either in the local cathedral or in a church of special meaning or a shrine of particular importance. People who want the plenary indulgence associated with passing through a holy door can do so without the need to come to Rome.
During a press conference in May, Italian Archbishop Rino Fisichella of the Pontifical Council for the Promotion of New Evangelisation – more or less the director of the Holy Year – tried to underscore its originality.
“In order to avoid any misunderstanding,” he said, “it is important to reiterate that this Jubilee of Mercy is not, and does not intend to be, the Great Jubilee Year of 2000.”
His reference was to the holy year held under St John Paul II to mark the turn of the millennium in 2000, widely considered the biggest blockbuster in the history of jubilees. It featured a special event in Rome virtually every day, including – this is no joke – jubilee days for pizza chefs, motorcycle riders and circus performers.
The city of Rome officially estimates that 24.5 million people took part in John Paul II’s jubilee at some point during the year 2000; Censis, an Italian research institute, put the total at 32 million.
Francis seems to have in mind a less Rome-centric event. On Ash Wednesday this year, which falls on February 10, he’ll commission a special corps of priests, called ‘Missionaries of Mercy’, part of whose charge is to go out and organise special events connected to the jubilee for local churches around the world.
If crowds are smaller in Rome this time, therefore, it won’t necessarily mean the jubilee is a flop. It could simply signify that it’s working according to design, as some share of potential pilgrims decide to observe the event in their own backyards.
For those reasons, the party most likely to be disappointed if the expected tidal wave of visitors to Rome never materialises almost certainly won’t be Pope Francis. Instead, it will be Rome’s hotel operators, tour guides, cab drivers, restauranteurs, and gift shop owners, all of whom have been counting on the jubilee to boost their flagging bottom lines. The Pope may be happy with a smaller and less spectacular event, but the people who make a living from his star power probably shouldn’t be expected to share the sentiment.
John L. Allen Jr. is Associate Editor of CruxNow.com