Paul KeenanAs Pope Francis prepares for his Turkish visit, there is a deficit of trust for the Ankara administration, writes Paul Keenan
They say that in politics timing is everything and leaders rise and fall based on the very timing of their strategic moves, or lack of, across the political landscape.
Such a truism has less of an effect within the religious sphere, of course, wherein leaders frequently react to global events without the need to keep an eye on opinion polls or looming elections.
This is true of the forthcoming visit to Turkey by Pope Francis, November 28-30, where considerations within the Vatican as to its timing extended only so far as to ensure his presence for the feast day of St Andrew, the patron saint of Constantinople, on the 30th.
Yet, in the same instant, the visit – quite unintentionally – shines a light on what is becoming a most dramatic political and religious locus, one in which only a master of timing has a hope of prospering.
Till now, that ‘master’ has been President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A political powerbroker since his first election as prime minister in 2003, Mr Erdogan subsequently led his Justice and Development (AK) Party to two further general election victories before his successful bid for the presidency in August.
Success
This level of success points to a shrewd political sense on the part of Mr Erdogan in a system where a practitioner must appeal both to the voter who may be political and Islamic in the same moment. In recent years, Mr Erdogan has continued to work his nation closer to the European Union while simultaneously finding popularity amongst fundamentalist personalities who seek a reversal of Turkey’s secular status; he has weathered a corruption probe against him and members of his own family; likewise his handling (harshly) of the 2013 Gezi Park protests against an authoritarian drift from the nation’s secular principles did nothing to affect massive voter turnout in his favour.
But that was then, this is now.
There was a time in which Turkey was perceived in a manner akin to its physical geography; a nation at the crossroads of East and West with Istanbul/Constantinople an epicentre of Christian and Muslim interaction and relations. Today, however, the term ‘crossroads’ has been replaced with the murkier perception of Turkey as, at best, an ‘ambiguous’ nation on the world stage. In the East, Shia-dominated Iran warily eyes the apparent designs of Turkey to become the Sunni powerhouse of a rapidly changing Middle East; Saudi Arabia, the main competitor for that powerhouse status, joined Syria in October to undermine Turkey by lobbying (successfully) to deny it a UN Security Council seat, while other Arab nations have not forgiven Turkey for backing the aspirations of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (that country has since withdrawn its ambassador to Ankara).
The nation fares little better in the eyes of the West.
The European Union, involved in accession negotiations with Turkey, protracted by worries over a refusal to recognise the status of Cyprus, along with Turkish deficiencies in the areas of fundamental rights, was given fresh cause for concern in September when it emerged that a jihadist wanted in Denmark in connection with a shooting there was detained at Istanbul’s main airport in April only to be quietly released despite Danish appeals for his extradition. America, too, has reassessed relations in light of apparent sympathies displayed by the latter for the activities of the Islamic State (IS) in neighbouring Syria and Iraq. Not only did Turkey refuse permission for coalition bombers to use its airfields in attempting to tackle IS, but having previously made helpless soundings over IS hopefuls accessing the battlefield via its porous southern borders, it became extremely efficient in sealing the same border against Kurdish fighters eager to bolster their compatriots in the Syrian town of Kobane.
In light of all such realities, Pope Francis’ journey to Ankara this month may be notable for the fact that very few, if any, other leaders are willing to undertake that journey at this time. Some mischievous commentators might even be tempted to point out that he has never feared ‘unpopular causes’.
The Pope will surely avoid such geopolitical entanglements when he lands on Turkish soil, focusing instead on the nation’s tiny Christian population. Today, 53,000 of Turkey’s 76.14 million people are Catholic, served by 58 priests and 54 religious in 54 parishes. This figure obviously does not include those Christians making up nearly 2 million refugees who have fled the conflict in Syria, who will undoubtedly be in the Pontiff’s prayers. Those prayers will undoubtedly include the memory of Bishop Luigi Padovese, the prelate murdered in Turkey in 2010.
Symbolic
That said, there is one unavoidable element, heavily symbolic for both Pope Francis and President Erdogan which will be touched upon during the official itinerary, and that is the planned visit to the famed Hagia Sophia cathedral.
Built originally during the rule of the Emperor Constantius II, son of Constantine, in 360, the cathedral survived until 404 when it was destroyed during an uprising, paving the way for construction of a second structure which was burned down in 532 during yet another period of instability. The structure of the building as it stands today was completed in 537, remaining a place of Christian worship until 1453 with the conquest of Constantinople by Sultan Mehmet II. Converted for use as a mosque, this reality continued through to the decline of the Ottoman Empire and the onset of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s secular Turkey which saw the Hagia Sophia closed for worship and declared a museum in 1935.
If there are any security concerns for the Pope during his trip, it will surely be at the Hagia Sophia where he will face protestors who continue to insist on it being reopened for Muslim worship and who will certainly view the Pontiff’s visit as a threat to that aspiration. Simultaneously, attention on the site will also serve as an uncomfortable reminder for Mr Erdogan of timing in politics.
Readers may recall how this newspaper previously covered the threat posed to the Hagia Sophia both by Islamic protestors and Mr Erdogan himself, who, in seeking electoral success, insisted he would join in Muslim prayers at the cathedral in time for the May 29 anniversary of Mehmet II’s capture of the site – having previously rejected any move to reopen it as a mosque. There has been no confirmation that Mr Erdogan subsequently did attend prayers at the site.
Among those striving for mosque status for the cathedral is one Hami Yildirim, a member of parliament who tabled a motion for such a move in early May of this year.
And herein lies the rub.
In faith, Mr Yildirim is a disciple of exiled Imam Fethullah Gulen, famed and followed by millions within Turkey. Among his adherents, it was noted in 2013, were a number of the police officers investigating the corruption allegations against Mr Erdogan. The wily Mr Erdogan quickly seized on this to assert that Gulen’s followers were seeking to undermine Turkey via malicious accusations against him.
Having created the scenario, Mr Erdogan appears now to be a prisoner of it, with AK deputies refusing to have any truck with Mr Yildirim’s proposal, spying in it a ‘religious trap’ to further damn the president in the eyes of an international community ready to clamour for religious freedoms, a move which simultaneously prevents him from pleasing his Islamic supporters.
Unpopular East and West, Mr Erdogan will try to capitalise on the papal visit, but may find the itinerary inconvenient for his standing at home too.
A case of bad timing?