Increasingly difficult to have a calm debate

Same-sex marriage referendum is likely to be one of the most divisive political campaigns Ireland has seen, writes Michael Kelly

In a sense, the campaign has been going on for years. Current affairs programmes on radio and television have been pushing a line on the issue for quite some time. In that sense, the fact that opinion polls are suggesting around 80% of voters support proposals to redefine marriage is unsurprising. Even some mainstream media outlets have abandoned the semblance of a fair debate by using loaded and emotive terms like ‘marriage equality’ instead of the politically neutral – and more factually descriptive – term same-sex marriage.

The Government, desperate to win the support of socially-liberal voters, has nailed its colours firmly to the mast too with senior ministers determined to prejudice the outcome of the poll by also using the term ‘marriage equality’.

Most people agree, at least in principle, that we should have a calm debate about what is, by any objective measure, a contentious issue. I fear, however, there are already signs that the debate will be anything but calm. An RTÉ television debate during the week descended in to farce when supporters of redefining marriage resorted to name-calling and throwing around the term ‘homophobe’ to describe those opposed to same-sex marriage.

It’s as if we live in the 1950s in reverse where those adjudged to hold unpopular or unorthodox views must be shouted down at all costs.

This debate has all the hallmarks of descending in to an ‘error has no rights’ spectacle with those opposed to changing the legal understanding of marriage declared the enemies of progress.

How this plays out with the voters will be interesting to behold. As successive referendums have shown, the Irish electorate doesn’t really like being told what to do. Several referendums to do with Ireland’s relationship with the European Union (EU) were defeated despite the entire political and media establishment urging a ‘yes’ vote.

Similarly, in the run-up to the children’s rights referendum, opinion polls found that 4% of voters would oppose the referendum. It seemed plausible given that all newspapers, political parties and the overwhelming majority of commentators were urging a ‘yes’ vote. On the day – the vote was held on a Saturday in a bid to maximise public support – 42% of voters decided to vote ‘no’.

Opinion poll

It was interesting to note that a weekend opinion poll found that many of those saying they would vote ‘yes’ to change the constitution to allow same-sex marriage, many have reservations.

A total of 77% said they intend to vote ‘yes’. However, interestingly, over a third of those who say they intend to vote for the referendum still have reservations including concerns about same-sex couples adopting children. When these are factored out of the overall figure, the core ‘yes’ vote drops to just 44%.

What are we to make of the reservations that many of those who say they are likely to vote ‘yes’ have? Undoubtedly, children is a major issue for people. And, despite attempts by the Government to argue that marriage has nothing to do with children, people are not fools. There is an intrinsic link between marriage and children and most people know this despite how often campaigners try to deny this basic fact.

Health warning

Another major health warning when it comes to the current opinion polls is the potential for what US pollsters call the ‘Bradley Effect’. In short, this is the tendency for voters – when asked by pollsters – to opt for what appears to be the more socially desirable. That is, people who will, in fact, vote ‘no’ in a referendum, will tell pollsters they will vote ‘yes’ out of fear of not appearing progressive.

The phenomenon was often obvious when it came to Sinn Féin in the Republic in the 1990s when the party would consistently poll much higher in actual elections than in opinion polls, the theory being that many Sinn Féin voters did not want to admit this.

It remains to be seen whether some variation of the ‘Bradley Effect’ will, in fact, play out in the same-sex marriage referendum. It’s also not clear how much of an impact attempts by some ‘yes’ campaigners to shut down debate and discussion will have.

One wonders what there is to be feared from a calm and reasonable debate.