David Quinn
The Government is set to erode the status of marriage even more, writes David Quinn
Ireland is set to have another divorce referendum this year. It is to take place on May 24, the same day as the Local and European Elections. You might be surprised that we are to vote on divorce again. Didn’t we do that back in 1995 when we voted in favour of it by the astonishingly tight margin of 0.7%?
If you recall, one reason why the then Government was able to get the referendum over the line is because they convinced a sceptical electorate that the type of divorce on offer would be very restrictive, which was true up to a point. If we voted in favour of divorce we would also be voting to place in the Constitution a requirement that a couple be separated for four out of the last five years before they could divorce. No other country had such a long waiting period. The idea was that it would act as a break on people getting divorced, that it would give them plenty of time to think about it and act as a deterrent to ‘quickie divorce’.
This waiting period is now set to be reduced to two years. The person behind the initiative is Josepha Madigan, Minister for Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht who led Fine Gael’s campaign to repeal the Eighth Amendment last May.
Requirement
There was talk at one point that a two-year requirement would be inserted into the Constitution, in place of the current waiting period. But now, there will be no waiting period in the Constitution. Instead, the two-year wait will be part of ordinary legislation, which means a future Oireachtas can easily reduce it even further.
A concern back in 1995 was that if we introduced divorce, we might go the same way as Britain or America which have high divorce rates. Contrary to what some commentators today say, very few anti-divorce campaigners in 1995 warned that the ‘floodgates would open’ straightaway, but they were concerned that over time a cultural shift would occur, and that marriage breakdown would become more widespread.
So, what has happened in the meantime? Divorce rates have not skyrocketed. On the contrary, we have the lowest rate of divorce in Europe. But the divorce rate on its own does not tell the whole story because many Irish couples separate without ever getting divorced.
For example, according to Census 2016, in that year there were 103,000 divorced people in the country, but 118,000 people who had separated but were not divorced. So, the divorce figure on its own tells less than half the story.
Even adding the two figures together (bringing us to 221,000 people) does not tell the full story, because it does not include those who have previously suffered a broken marriage and have since married someone else. When you include these, the number of Irish who have been through a marriage breakdown is more like 280,000.
This is a big figure by any reckoning. In 1986, the equivalent figure was 40,000. (There was no right to divorce then, but you could separate.)
In other words, Ireland has experienced a very big increase in divorce and separation even if, thankfully, we are not at the level commonly found in other Western countries.
Probably one reason it has not gone higher is cultural. There may still be more resistance here to getting divorced than in other societies. What is noticeable from census figures, is that when you look at marital breakdown by ethnic group, you find that it is much less common among Indians living in Ireland than among Britons, Latvians or Lithuanians.
It is very hard to believe there aren’t cultural factors at work there. Indians are clearly very reluctant to divorce even when a marriage is in trouble. They might well put the common good ahead of their own individual happiness, something we in the West are far more reluctant to do with our total commitment to personal freedom above all.
But it might also be the case that the long waiting time for divorce up to now has also been a factor in keeping down divorce rates here. This can’t be ruled out.
The argument in favour of reducing waiting times is that it is cruel to keep people married against their will and prevent them getting on with their lives. It is another version of the pro-choice argument, which is to say, if people want to divorce, no-one should stand in their way.
But it is not that simple. To begin with, people are sometimes divorced against their will. Shouldn’t their wish not to be divorced also weigh in the balance?
Also, there will likely be children involved, so there are other lives to be considered. Divorce isn’t simply a private act.
It will be counterargued that children are better off if unhappy parents go their separate ways. But what studies show is that children are only better off in the event of divorce when their parents’ marriage was high-conflict. This does not have to involve violence, but more typically means very visible rows and obvious tension.
About half of marriages that end in divorce are high-conflict, while the rest are low-conflict. Children often don’t notice when a marriage is low-conflict and it can come as a big shock to them when their parents split up. The results can be long-lasting.
Therefore, we have a strong interest in keeping rates of divorce and separation low.
The one opinion poll on the upcoming referendum shows a big majority in favour of reducing the waiting time or even eliminating it completely. A reduction from four years to two years is something we could probably live with. But if we leave it up to the Oireachtas to decide on the waiting time, it is very likely to be reduced below two years over time. That can only erode the legal status of marriage and reduce it to a glorified form of cohabitation, which is a terrible idea.