Dr Martin Mansergh“The Irish State now finds itself beside a deeply divided and unhappy country”, writes Martin Mansergh
Unfortunately, Britain, Ireland and the European Union have been hit by a political meteorite, despite best efforts to avert a collision, and the hope or expectation privately shared by some in the Leave camp that the Brexit referendum outcome would be a near miss.
Constructing a new equilibrium in relationships within Ireland, between Britain and Ireland as States, and between the UK and the EU as a whole will be a big and time-consuming challenge, against a backdrop in all probability of considerable political and economic turbulence. No one thrives where there is a great deal of fear and uncertainty. ‘Taking back control’ was an effective but so far empty promise.
There is now a crisis, where there is no one elected in control. Britain’s EU partners will want to minimise damage when it leaves, but avoiding moral hazard that would encourage imitation by Eurosceptic forces growing in strength in many countries. Ireland has to ensure that no arrangements are agreed that would be unfairly prejudicial to it.
Attractions
Explanations for what has happened can be found at many levels. England has form, when it comes to breaks with Rome, even if this time it is with the Treaty of Rome rather than the Church. It is difficult in the long term to sustain an ambivalent relationship, which made it impossible for Britain to compete for a leadership role, and therefore increased the attractions of going it alone.
For a country with a 1,000-year history, and long one of the world’s dominant powers, boasts of June 23 being ‘independence day’ will strike many as incongruous and absurd. The depiction of the EU Commission, which has the difficult task of holding more than two dozen countries together and ensuring fairness between them, as something akin to a foreign dictatorship in sections of the British media is devoid of any sense of proportion.
The reality of today’s world for countries great and small is one of interdependence. In contemporary politics, there are many examples of countries, where those who feel by-passed and neglected by the political system, wish to register their protest, and, if possible, capture power.
One of the contradictions in the situation is that Britain was one of the greatest advocates in the EU of trade liberalisation and maximum enlargement. There is always a danger, in Ireland as well, that mainstream political parties and the bureaucracy go too far ahead of public opinion without adequate mechanisms of accountability.
The Irish State now finds itself beside a deeply divided and unhappy country. The reading in church last Sunday week of St Paul’s Epistle to the Galatians resonated as a warning applicable to the tone of the referendum debate and its immediate aftermath: “If you go snapping at each other and tearing each other to pieces, you had better watch or you will destroy the whole community” (Ch. 5, v. 15).
Peace
Continuing peace in Northern Ireland is precious. It is difficult to see how the Union is strengthened by the decision, as claimed by the First Minister, if the immediate consequence is to reopen the question of an independent Scotland staying within the EU.
Were that to be the actual outcome, then Northern Ireland would be left inside a rump UK. The significant unionist vote to remain cannot be interpreted as a willingness to contemplate a united Ireland, any more than the overwhelming vote in Gibraltar to remain should be interpreted as a willingness to be reintegrated into Spain.
All the concentration needs to be on the practicalities of avoiding a new reinforced border, disrupting the free flow of trade and persons that was the product of both the EU and the peace process.
Realism is needed in Ireland. Commemoration can sometimes cloud the fact that we have moved way beyond our starting point 100 years ago.
The model of small and indefeasibly sovereign self-sufficient nation-states, about a dozen of which were formed around or following the end of the First World War, had severe limitations, and Ireland was one of the relatively few lucky ones to survive the Second World War relatively unscathed and to avoid subsequent military occupation. Economic policy then had to change, if Irish people were to remain at home.
Ireland was an eager new member of the EEC in 1973, whereas Britain was a reluctant one.
Membership has dramatically lessened Ireland’s previous almost total economic dependence on Britain for its exports. Real independence and a somewhat later catch-up in prosperity has been the result of Ireland’s EU membership.
Now that Ireland will be an EU member without Britain, the challenge will be to hang on to and enlarge those gains.
The Irish State is very attractive to US multinationals, locating here to serve a single market of 500 million people. Their presence, the employment they give, and the living standards they help to sustain are compelling reasons why no Irish government will be tempted to follow Britain out of the EU, regardless of short-term difficulties.
The anniversary of the battle of the Somme, the ghastly climax of the First World War on the western front, which over a period of months cost more than a million soldiers’ lives all round, is or should be a reminder of the essential reason for the existence of the EU, to make sure after the even bloodier Second World War, that national rivalries would never again ravage the countries and peoples of Europe.
Contrast
Both unionists and nationalists fought and died at the Somme. Interestingly, in July 1916 the Church of Ireland Gazette praised their fighting in a common cause, and contrasted it with the battle of the Boyne, where their ancestors were on opposite sides.
Again, commemoration can cloud the fact that contemporary Ireland is a completely different place from the past, and the traditions on a far more equal footing.
When post-Brexit arrangements are negotiated, Ireland will be part of a 27-strong EU partnership, not the weaker member in a bilateral relationship.