Archbishop Eamon Martin of Armagh blessing at Clonmacnoise Monastery. Photo: CNS/Clodagh Kilcoyne, Reuters. In this series of articles, I summarise and reflect on current data which reveals where the Church in Ireland is today and importantly how this informs our step towards the future. Firstly, I will focus on where we are now.
Sociologists and anthropologists have taken to religious study across the world to explore secularisation and religiosity with some very useful findings. Secularisation theory was popular amongst academics in the 20th century, and suggests that as societies process and modernise, religion will inevitably be eradicated. Although some theorists still largely hold to this or a modified version, other researchers disagree. Some propose that religion will thrive but in a more personal individual way (as in Grace Davie’s Believing but not belonging) or that religiosity is not tied to modernisation but specifically to wealth and security (as in Inglehart’s Religions Sudden Decline). There is some truth in all these theories (the parallels between the latter and Matthew 19:23-24 have not gone unnoticed), and they contribute to our understanding of our current context. We need to get a true picture of our current situation while not losing sight of the hope out there and that we know of in Christ’s gospel.
Findings
Both globally and in the West, there are some exciting findings. Pew Research Centre (2017) predicted that religiosity will increase globally by 2050. Christianity is anticipated to undergo a marginal increase, and Islam significant growth to the extent that their population comprises almost the same proportion of the world’s population as Christians (31.8% in comparison to 31.1%).One reason for this global boom is that although those who do not identify as being part of any religion are due to increase, they are also significantly less likely to have children, and religious transmission to offspring is significantly more common than conversation (more on this in a later article). Essentially, this population are on average raising themselves short of resupply, whereas Christians and other religions aren’t.
Another mark of interest is that Christian growth is expected to take place in Africa. 4 in 10 Christians currently live in Sub-Sahara Africa. In 1900, 73% of Catholics were in the Global North (Europe and North America), and 27% in the Global South (Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania). A century later in 2020 these percentages have reversed. Catholic populations in Africa increased at 4.3% per year, more than double the continent’s yearly population growth rate of 2%. This demonstrates that Christianity can boom in the 21st century.
While secularisation is pervasive, it is not all-encompassing, and it is inaccurate to consider religion as ‘dying’”
Even in the West where religions are largely in decline there is reason for hope, and things we can learn to effectively move forward. In Britain, younger Catholics (18-44) are more likely than other generations of Catholics to attend Mass and confession more regularly and display doctrinal orthodoxy. Clements and Bullivant proposes this is due to both a “survivorship bias”, i.e. they are no longer to identify as Catholic if they are not as “invested” and “creative minority effect” meaning that as these age groups swim against the tide of their peers, they form groups or become part of movements that fosters their commitment further. There are also plenty of examples of thriving parishes and conversions occurring. This demonstrates that while secularisation is pervasive, it is not all-encompassing, and it is inaccurate to consider religion as ‘dying’.
Ireland
Where are we in Ireland? Ireland was previously considered an exception amongst the prevailing secularisation of the western European world. However, according to the 2022 census, 69% identify as Catholic (down from 79% in 2016) and 14% identify as having no religion (up from 10% in 2016). Starting from a high bar, religious practice has declined sharply in Ireland. Weekly Mass attendance went from 90% in 1973 to 43% in 2008, a time span of 35 years. Generally, there is minimal agreement with Church moral stances and much institutional distrust. In Turpin’s 2017 survey data 11 known factors for rejecting Catholicism were ranked. These were in order: moral conservativism, clerical abuse, authoritarianism, everyday hypocrisy, irrational beliefs, inauthentic practice, personal irrelevance, boredom with services, scientific knowledge, secularist/atheist intellectual influence and knowledge of other religions. Derek Scalley’s The Best Catholics in the World uncovered mixed perspectives on Catholicism in Ireland and the enduring legacy of Church scandals. Despite these changes, for now Ireland remains relatively highly religious with 16–29 year-olds ranking amongst the most religious youth in Europe showing that while there is a lot of work to be done there remains cause for hope.
It is much more likely for individuals to become religiously non-affiliated than a Catholic to become Protestant and visa-versa”
When looking specifically at Northern Ireland, according to several measures, Northern Ireland is currently one of the most religious places in the West. Researchers propose that conflicts here contributed to religious trends through formation of ethnic identities and development of religious commitment. Almost everyone was raised as either a Catholic or Protestant and there remains very limited inter-sectarian religious mobility. It is much more likely for individuals to become religiously non-affiliated than a Catholic to become Protestant and visa-versa. 42.31% of the population identified as Catholics in the most recent census; varying little since 1861 when data begins. Those affiliated with no religion has significantly increased since 1961 reaching its peak in 2021 at 19%. Census results also show us religious upbringing. From this we can determine that 3.39% of those brought up as Catholic in NI no longer identify as such. With many still practising or connecting with the Church (even for cultural or social reasons) this provides an avenue to reach out.
Religiosity
The fact that there remains a relatively high religiosity across the island of Ireland provides hope and a chance to do something when people do engage with their faith. There are more opportunities to develop faith in someone who comes to Church even if only for their wedding than one who the Church doesn’t meet at all: so now is our chance!
In the coming weeks, I will share more research on influences on faith with a focus on how practically we can bring people back to Christ.
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A qualified pharmacist, following volunteering roles Emily Nelson pursued her interest and completed a Master’s in theology at St. Mary’s University, Twickenham, London. She set up FaithVersed through which she supports Christian organisations in the UK and Ireland in event organisation and research. Alongside this Emily is completing a PhD in Sociology at Queen’s University Belfast, in Catholic Disaffiliation on the Island of Ireland.