Voters are in a volatile mood ahead of General Election

It’s a bit of a risk writing a column for a newspaper that comes out on a Thursday and assuming the General Election will have been called by the time you read it. But all the predictions are that Ireland will have its General Election on Friday, November 29, and Taoiseach Simon Harris will have called announced the date at the end of this week. The TDs are already mostly back in their constituencies canvassing for support.

At the moment, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are looking good to be returned to Government, whether they deserve it or not. A Sunday Independent poll at the weekend had Fine Gael on 26% support, Fianna Fail on 20% and Sinn Fein on 18%. Independents were on 16% with the rest split between the various small parties.

Sinn Fein is a far cry from where they were a year ago when they were head and shoulders above either of the two main Government parties with about 36% support. They have experienced a huge fall since then.

Even compared with their election result in February 2020, Sinn Fein is down about six points. Fianna Fail is down two compared with then, and Fine Gael is up four. Therefore, Fine Gael is sitting fairly pretty, although it is all relative because 26% support isn’t much to be writing home about. The glory days of the two main parties, and Fianna Fail especially, are almost certainly never coming back.

Immigration

What has happened, especially since the economic crash of 2008, is the fracturing of the Irish political scene, but also the rise of Sinn Fein. Even if they are down from the heady heights of a year ago, their vote is much higher than it was say, 2016, when it won only 13.8% of the vote in the General Election of that year. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see them climb back up to the 24% they won in 2020 if they run a decent campaign.

But why has Sinn Fein’s support dropped so much in the last year? That usually happens to Government parties. The reason most political commentators are giving is immigration. Sinn Fein is broadly speaking a social democratic party and across Europe those parties have found themselves on the horns of a dilemma.

This leaves their working-class voters feeling very betrayed and then they bring their votes elsewhere”

Their traditional working-class supporters tend not to like high immigration, but the leaders of these parties usually do. They seem to think immigrants are more deserving of support, if a choice must be made, than their working-class base, and therefore they do not seek to reduce immigration levels.

This leaves their working-class voters feeling very betrayed and then they bring their votes elsewhere. In France, for example, many working-class voters now support the National Rally, the party of Marine Le Pen, which wants to bring down high immigration and is particularly opposed to high immigration from Muslim countries.

We might or might not like the attitude of a large part of the working class, but it is what it is and as a result the traditional social democratic parties across Europe have lost lots of voters. There is one exception, namely Denmark, where the ruling Social Democrats have cracked down on high immigration and therefore have kept their working-class vote.

Compromise

It’s a curious thing that a lot of voters seem to be angrier at Sinn Fein than the Government over high immigration. Maybe that is because high immigration tends not to affect middle class areas very much.

My own hunch is that the Independents, and maybe Aontu, will do well in the coming election. Fine Gael are riding quite high in the polls because the economy appears to be doing well, and it is, for some.

If you asked the average voter whether they feel better off now than in February 2020, many would surely answer that they do not”

But there is something of an artificial feel to things. On paper we are booming, but look a bit closer and we see that a huge amount of the growth is coming from the multi-national sector. This has caused corporate tax receipts to absolutely boom, but the homegrown economy is doing much less well and so are many ordinary people.

The last election happened just before Covid-19 arrived and back then prices were much lower than they are today. Now we are all paying far more for the basics of life like food and fuel. If you asked the average voter whether they feel better off now than in February 2020, many would surely answer that they do not.

Expectations

What this means is that there isn’t really much love for the Government. The votes Sinn Fein have lost in the last year have to go somewhere and many could gravitate towards the Independents.

We are also being told all the time that Simon Harris is very popular with voters. But is he really? His approval rating is 52% which isn’t bad, but is only four points higher than Micheal Martin’s approval rating.

If the next Government is going to consist of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail again, then they might find themselves having to partner with some combination of Independents.

Whatever Government does emerge, what can we expect then? In my opinion the most consequential piece of legislation to come before the next Dail is likely to seek to allow euthanasia.

A private member’s bill is currently before the House of Commons in London and a free vote is being permitted. Labour now has a huge majority, and it will take a big effort to defeat the bill, although that is possible.

Don’t believe this election will necessarily go as expected. In 2020, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were predicted to do better than they did and Sinn Fein a lot worse”

It is quite likely that the next Irish Government will not sponsor a euthanasia bill as such, but will allow a free vote if a private member’s bill comes before the Dail which is very likely. That could well pass, unless a very good campaign is mounted against it, hopefully led by doctors.

For sheer moral significance, a euthanasia bill will surpass anything else that could come before the Dail in the next five years.

This is why any candidates coming to your door should be asked what they think about the matter. Many won’t want to answer. They will be tempted to run a mile. But getting a response is far more important than anything else they might have an opinion about.

And meanwhile, don’t believe this election will necessarily go as expected. In 2020, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were predicted to do better than they did and Sinn Fein a lot worse. The pundits were wrong on all three counts. What is certain is that the electorate are in a volatile mood and that could lead to an unpredictable outcome in a few weeks’ time.