Will Ireland follow the US’ back to basics approach?

As the politicians of Ireland take to the streets in preparation for the forthcoming election, the fallout and post-election analysis from the US continues. A resounding victory for President Elect Donald Trump, and ignominious defeat for current Vice President Kamala Harris, have made for pages and pages of political post-mortems.

While there are major differences between the United States and this country, there are certainly some observations that may be of use, and even lessons that can be learned, in the Irish context.

To begin with, it is necessary to identify why the Trump campaign won, and the Harris campaign lost. Undoubtedly, there were hardcore Trump supporters who voted in their droves because they love his belligerent attitude towards the establishment, his siding with the little guy (even though he is incredibly successful in his own right), and his injection of irreverent humour into a customarily grey, stale, and dour political scene.

However, my sense is that many voted to reject what the Democrats were offering; the feeling of frustration – and even anger – with the incumbent administration should not be underestimated.

Harris

According to the figures, Kamala Harris did not outperform Joe Biden in a single county in the whole country. She also lost ground with Hispanic voters and black men, and lost outright in areas that haven’t voted Republican in a century.

Among New York Jews, Trump increased his share of the vote by 50%. Trump made big gains with Generation X (aged 44-59) and Gen Z voters (aged 18-27) too. Finally, 52% of the Catholic population voted for Biden in 2020, but Trump succeeded in securing 56% of the Catholic vote this time around. In other words, typical Democrat voters flocked to the Republican candidate in 2024.

There are broadly three reasons why Trump won and Harris lost: 1) the economy; 2) immigration; and 3) the “woke” agenda. These are all hot button topics in Ireland too.

On the economy, inflation and the soaring cost of living contributed to ordinary Americans’ frustration with the Biden/Harris administration, from which Harris—despite repeated opportunities presented to her—was unable or unwilling to distance herself. Men voted for Trump; he made significant gains among non-white men in particular, who might have been presumed to be Democrat voters.

Misogyny

Many commentators suggest that misogyny is at the root of their rejection of Kamala Harris. However, I think their analysis is wrong, or at least incomplete. My own feeling is that many working class men reacted against the idea that a woman would “look after them” by giving them hand-outs and favouring them in her party’s DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) policies.

I think it was less the fact that she was a woman, and more Harris’s condescending attitude and infantilising “maternalistic” policies that irked the male voter. Harris’s implicit promise read something like: “I’ll look after you.” This was a fundamental misunderstanding of the male psyche, something which Margaret Thatcher, by contrast—whose message to men was to get out there and provide for themselves—understood much better.

Immigration was a big issue for voters too, and here there are strong parallels with Ireland. Being told you are racist for raising concerns about hundreds of young men from a foreign country with no family ties, no prospects, and no ID or records, being bussed into your neighbourhood has gone down badly with Irish people, and Americans are no different.

Voters concerns are not about race, but rather about resources and security. People are already struggling to meet the needs of their own families, with difficulties finding a GP, accessing care in A&E hospital departments, getting their children into already oversubscribed schools, and finding affordable housing – it doesn’t take a mathematician to see that adding substantial numbers to the population overnight is going to make the situation a whole lot worse.

And that is before considering the very valid issue of security, particularly the safety of women and children. It seems that Irish (and American) men are constantly admonished for their “toxic masculinity”, but apparently this is not an issue for young men arriving from other countries and very different cultures – and to suggest so is inherently racist.

The Democratic machine’s decision to appeal to the lowest moral common denominator did not work for them either”

Finally, the so-called “woke” agenda was, I think, the straw that broke Kamala’s back. The US election really was a battle of culture and values – of the two parties painting a vision for the country. Harris’s main vision appeared to centre on abortion, and while I think it would be a stretch to suggest that voters rejected abortion in their rejection of her, it is clear that her pro-choice strategy did not work. Abortion, at the end of the day, is a horrible thing, and if that’s your biggest selling point, you’re in difficulty.

The Democratic machine’s decision to appeal to the lowest moral common denominator did not work for them either. In a very ill-judged ad, a political action committee supporting Harris tried to motivate young men by warning them that the Republicans would threaten their access to pornography. In this, they (again) misjudged the male psyche.

While use of pornography may be widespread among young men, most know deep down that it is wrong – and they don’t care to be reminded of their weaknesses. Although Harris herself spoke repeatedly of appealing to the “aspirations” of the people, her supporters’ targeting of young men as fundamentally degraded was a tremendous own-goal.

Religious freedom was a big issue for many voters too. The Amish, who usually rebuff the ballot box, registered to vote in unprecedented numbers in order to protect their traditions, and overwhelmingly supported Trump, helping to secure the Pennsylvania vote. This was echoed among other religious communities too, including Catholics.

The increasingly deranged alliance between feminism, socialism, DEI proponents and trans-ideologues eventually reached the tipping point, at which the ordinary voters were finally willing to say: “Enough!”

For a time, the campaign of intimidation led by the unholy trinity of politicians, media and academics proved incredibly effective across all layers of society, so that people would either self-censor and keep their (unfashionable) opinions to themselves, or submit and not merely tolerate, but celebrate, whatever new madness was proposed: whether men competing in women’s sports, or teenage boys using girls changing rooms, or operating on young girls and castrating young boys in the name of “kindness”.

Insulted

But, eventually, people got tired of being insulted. President Joe Biden’s comment that Trump’s supporters were “garbage” played out badly and served as a reminder of Hilary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” comment in 2016. In the Irish context, the tendency of the parties in power to label anyone who disagrees with them on matters such as these as “far-right” carries more than an echo of the failed Harris campaign.

When everyone is a misogynist, or a racist, or far-right, the term in question loses its sting and people begin to think: perhaps I shouldn’t care what you think anymore. The question is: are Irish voters at that point yet?